Sep 2, 2011

Ireland - Recovery Looking Good

Ireland appears to be turning the corner - away from recession and may even be able to return to global money markets at the end of next year, according to a new report.

Independent London-based consultancy, the Centre for Economics and Business Research,  ( CEBR ) says it believes the austerity measures introduced by the Irish government are now paying off .

The report  says that Irish exports led by  pharmaceutical, IT and food sectors, will "gradually pull the economy out of its trough" and forecasts GDP growth of 2%  in 2012  and 4% in 2013:
They say that "Ireland is set to be one of Europe's best performers. George Osborne could learn some lessons from what Ireland has got right in turning an economy round."

Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross who this week said that Ireland   will be the first European nation to recover from the sovereign debt crisis and "will once again become the Celtic Tiger".

In Ireland - the  Economic and Social Research Institute  is forecasting GDP growth of 1.8% this year.

"When we said a year ago that Ireland would turn the corner in 2011, few believed us. But there is now increasing confidence, reflected in falling bond yields, that this will happen. With a strong export economy and a successful 'internal devaluation', Ireland is set to be one of Europe's best performers," said CEBR chief executive Douglas McWilliams.

The attitude of the bond markets to Ireland has changed dramatically in the past month. As the eurozone crisis worsened, Ireland's bond costs reduced. Last week 10-year bond yields dropped to below 9% for the first time since February. CEBR is predicting they will fall to 6% in 2013 and 4% in 2014, widely considered a sustainable level for a return to borrowing from the international markets.

The CEBR report, along with Ross's comments, will help Noonan's campaign to put clear water between Ireland and Greece and Portugal. Ross recently staked his claim on Ireland's future fortunes by snapping up a stake in the bailed-out Bank of Ireland, helping it to avert full nationalisation.

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